With a quarter-final front of mind, the All Blacks made nine starting changes for their final World Cup pool match last week. That rotation strategy included resting Ardie Savea, Aaron Smith, Rieko Ioane and Brodie Retallick. Those starters will arrive fresh for Ireland but, as always, the All Blacks have other delicate selection decisions to confront. Liam Napier runs through the pressure points in Paris.
Left wing:
Strong whispers have emerged that the elusive Mark Telea is out of the quarter-final. The Blues wing has claimed three tries in two World Cup appearances - two against France, one where he beat multiple defenders to finish against Italy.
Telea was rested from the Namibia and Uruguay matches, with a view to him returning to start on the left edge for the quarter-final.
If Telea is ruled out, the All Blacks will turn to Leicester Fainga’anuku’s powerful presence after he impressed from the left wing to claim four tries against Namibia and Uruguay.
Fainga’anuku also savoured a brief stint - his first at any level - at second five-eighths in the All Blacks final pool match where he beat nine defenders.
Front row:
Props don’t score many points but, without their grunt, the backs are irrelevant. And as uncertainty hovers over the All Blacks starting big men, this is the most intriguing element of selection.
Ethan de Groot and Tyrel Lomax have emerged in the past year as the All Blacks’ new-age, all-court propping rocks. When fully-fit, there is no doubting their starting pedigree. A lack of recent game time for de Groot and injury to Lomax pose lingering questions but the All Blacks are expected to back their starters.
Rugby World Cup 2023 quarter-final schedule
De Groot appears likely to be ushered into the starting loosehead role after serving his two-week suspension for a high shot against Namibia. During his spell on the sidelines he’s worked diligently on his fitness, tackle and scrummaging techniques.
In his past two starts, against the Springboks at Twickenham and France in the World Cup opening defeat, de Groot struggled with Northern Hemisphere refereeing interpretations. Combine those issues with his recent disciplinary troubles, and de Groot could be considered high risk given cards and penalties may decide this quarter-final.
After a month without a match - he came off the bench against Namibia on September 15 - a high-intensity quarter-final also threatens to leave de Groot blowing.
Collectively, the All Blacks scrum has adapted in de Groot’s absence to become a weapon through pool play, with veterans Ofa Tuʻungafasi and Nepo Laulala anchoring that platform - albeit against lightweight opposition.
De Groot is said to have refined his technique at training, though.
Lomax’s prognosis - after suffering a medial ligament knee injury last week - has rapidly improved to the point he is available for selection. On a global scale, his scrummaging remains highly underrated but Lomax’s mobility is the major asset the All Blacks need after Ireland picked apart their props on defence last year.
If Lomax is good to go, he will start.
Ireland unchanged for Rugby World Cup quarter-final
Locks:
The All Blacks dropped their most telling locking rotation hint two weeks ago in the romp over Italy when Sam Whitelock started from the bench as he surpassed Richie McCaw as the most-capped New Zealander of all time in his 149th test.
With Retallick then rested for the All Blacks’ final pool match Uruguay, it would be a shock if he is not unleashed from the outset on Ireland. Retallick made no secret of his motivation for this contest after his fractured jaw - the result of a head-on-head tackle from prop Andrew Porter - in the last defeat to Ireland in Wellington.
Retallick and Scott Barrett are, therefore, favoured to pack the second row, with Whitelock’s experience likely to be savoured in the second half.
Depending on the composition of the bench, Barrett could potentially switch to blindside when Whitelock is injected.
Bench:
The main point of contention in the reserves appears at halfback where Finlay Christie could be a surprise inclusion over Cam Roigard.
In his maiden test start, Roigard produced a man-of-the-match performance that featured two tries and two assists against Namibia to confirm his prodigious talent. The following week Roigard usurped Christie to deputise for Aaron Smith and play 31 minutes off the bench against Italy.
Roigard’s last start against Uruguay, though, may give the selectors pause for thought.
Challenged by All Blacks coach Ian Foster to improve the sharpness of his passing, Roigard endured an erratic opening quarter against Uruguay that included one kick charged down when he had a stacked overlap outside him, and another skied box kick that resulted in a penalty against the All Blacks. He eventually settled, but that decision-making and accuracy could spark nerves he’s not ready to close out an occasion of this magnitude.
From a pure impact perspective, Roigard’s size and running threat offers a different dimension, particularly if the All Blacks are forced to chase the game, but Foster has long praised Christie’s defensive qualities.
The other focal point will be the reserve props. Experienced heads Ofa Tuʻungafasi and Nepo Laulala are considered better starters than finishers. The All Blacks could turn to young bucks Fletcher Newell and Tamaiti Williams for greater impact, but their inexperience could be deemed risky.
Otherwise, the bench should be relatively straightforward with Damian McKenzie, Anton Lienert-Brown, Dane Coles, Whitelock and Dalton Papali’i expected to feature.
Possible All Blacks team:
Ethan de Groot, Codie Taylor, Tyrel Lomax, Scott Barrett, Brodie Retallick, Shannon Frizell, Sam Cane, Ardie Savea, Aaron Smith, Richie Mo’unga, Leicester Fainga’anuku, Jordie Barrett, Rieko Ioane, Will Jordan, Beauden Barrett
Dane Coles, Ofa Tuʻungafasi, Fletcher Newell, Sam Whitelock, Dalton Papali’i, Finlay Christie, Damian McKenzie, Anton Lienert-Brown
All Blacks v Ireland
8am, Sunday
Follow live updates: nzherald.co.nz
Listen to commentary: Join Elliott Smith on Newstalk ZB, Gold Sport and iHeartRadio, or catch the ACC on iHeartRadio or Hauraki
